I'm Interested [01]: Agile Vaccines, Shipping Container Communities, Argentina - the super power that never was
Alright, it's happening.
What's happening? Well, I spend a lot of my idle time reading long-form articles. Then, I spend the other part of my idle time telling my friends and significant other (thanks for listening, Kylie!) about what I read in those articles in hopes of sparking thoughtful discourse on the subject matter. I often have a lot to say (no way?). I think a newsletter is a better outlet for all of those musings.
Hopefully it gets your wheels turning and you feel compelled to share and continue the conversation with others in your life.
The thing is, I'm interested in a lot of things. I know YOU are too. Not everyone has the energy or attention span to dig through the vast expanses of the internet and then read and prioritize what would be worth a chunk of that idle time we spend on our phone.
I'll be that someone.
This week, I'm interested in a few different topics:
Thought Provoking: Vaccine Development, an agile approach?
TL;DR: Maybe the vaccine development process is ready for an agile transformation. Maybe it’s not. I work in software, allow me to dream.
For decades, we have developed vaccines under the protective umbrella of the Food & Drug Administration (FDA). They are the premier regulatory agency in the world, with a steadfast mission to protect public health. That said, scientific advancement is hard, mistakes happen. Moreover, medical product development is slow.
In a very libertarian take on the COVID-19 vaccine development process, John Cochrane brings up some interesting (and controversial) points about modernizing the approval process. How might we have changed the course of the pandemic if we developed, tested, and distributed the vaccine iteratively - driven by the powers of the free market and choice?
Moderna’s mRNA-1273, which reported a 94.5 percent efficacy rate on November 16, had been designed by January 13. This was just two days after the genetic sequence had been made public
…the Moderna vaccine design took all of one weekend. It was completed before China had even acknowledged that the disease could be transmitted from human to human, more than a week before the first confirmed coronavirus case in the United States. By the time the first American death was announced a month later, the vaccine had already been manufactured and shipped to the National Institutes of Health for the beginning of its Phase I clinical trial.
- David Wallace-Wells in New York's Intelligencer
The mRNA vaccines were developed in a weekend and ready for clinical trials in January 2020 (note: before the end of normal). Should Pfizer and Moderna have sold them on the free market, with the correct disclaimers, and used vast amounts of patient data to continue iteration throughout the year? Would we have had the same economic collapse and high death toll in 2020 if mRNA vaccine iterations were rolling out to those who wanted them/would pay for them? Russia’s Sputnik vaccine released in less than 7 months with minimal testing and it drew the ire of the western world - now we know it has 92% efficacy. Shoutout to those scientists delivering under pressure.
There were no 90 yr olds included in the 2020 trials, and now we are shooting up 90 yr old arms as fast as we can. What’s the difference?
Think of it this way….
You submitted product version vfinal_1.1 to the FDA for clinical trials, knowing billions of dollars and a year of clinical trials rested on its shoulders for profitability (err I mean…public health impact). Two months later, with more time in the lab, you complete vfinal_morefinal_1.1_FINAL DRAFT and its markedly better, BUT if you submit it now you’re subject to the entire process/cost of regulatory review again. Iterating and improving is mostly dis-incentivized once you send the application in. You are also very limited by who is able to enroll in the trials.
Again, this is mostly pie in the sky thinking, but agility is generally better for consumer products and I believe it could be here as well. Problem is, who the hell trusts big-pharma to go about that in a safe way if its less-regulated?
Idea: Container Office Park
TL;DR: Commercial offices and cities are changing, how might we integrate, work, life, and social community with cheaper & more flexible office spaces with shipping containers?
A thought occurred to me this week while mulling the future of work. Most companies will require less commercial real estate if their workforce has a more flexible schedule. They will find ways to organize and schedule/reserve in-person spaces for folks to use as needed. They will increase flexibility to reduce footprints and save on rent in major cities.
Meanwhile, 2nd and 3rd cities will rise and attract knowledge workers who finally can afford an apartment (or a house?!). Small to medium sized companies will keep their footprints small, but there will still be demand for a place to meet people in person, enjoy a shared working space, meet other people, support local businesses for lunch and coffee on company or co-worker dime now and then, and feel a sense of work community.
Imagine a bustling, walkable hub to work, live, socialize…
Imagine that this is built in less than a years time on a low budget. Shipping containers, stacked and side by side with repeatable interiors to reduce costs. Businesses with glass storefronts occupy the first floors, some spilling to a second floor with rooftops and outdoor spaces. Apartments occupy second levels. A 40 x 8 ft shipping container is 320 sq ft. That could be a studio or just a rotating short term rental, if designed intentionally. Three of them could be a spacious 960 ft 1 bedroom, four could be a 2 bedroom 1,280 sq ft pad. You see where I am going. Containers are cheap, sturdy, and available and this hub could scale quickly on demand.
Commercial rent could be affordable, small apartments would be available and cheap to house energized talent, service workers, locals trying to finally move away from their parents house or a shared arrangement, new grads, and others who can’t easily find traditional housing at a price they can afford. Small business owners could own their space and a multi-unit apartment in the same space. Take a look at what they’ve done in Mexico, already (image below).
Container Community
Parking and car traffic would be limited amongst the container nodes to promote walking traffic and connectedness. Coffee shops that turn to bars/lounges would be encouraged. Food trucks would find their place for lunch time. Box gyms (#CROSSFIT) could easily find space - outdoors as well. A barber shop could slot into a single 40’ container and save on rent. Startups would find comfort in short term leases and the energy of the community.
Transplants would seek housing and community there as a starting point. Parks (aka basketball courts, because I don’t have a one track mind) could spring up between container clusters. The fluidity between live, work, and play in close proximity would unite people across companies and play nicely with the expanding time flexibility of modern work.
Now, imagine a lively multi-purpose hub sprung up in Chattanooga, TN or Richmond, VA - revitalizing the industrial landscape and appealing to young talent? Someone could invest in a new take on a neighborhood without immense building expenses, concrete foundations, etc. anywhere. If you’ve read this and thought I was a little crazy, there are people trying to accomplish this in Fort Worth, TX right now. It’s got me thinking bigger. I’ll have more on this in the next issue.
2021 World Tour: Argentina
TL;DR: Kylie and I are ‘touring’ a different country every month in 2021 via YouTube videos, podcasts, movies, articles, Parts Unknown episodes, food, and drinks. This month was Argentina.
The month culminated in a meal with Malbec, slow roasted ribs, and choripan. Along the way, I learned a great deal about the rise and sobering fall of Argentina as a world economic power (and also about its vibrant culture and beautiful landscapes!). In other words - Argentina, the super power that never was.
Economic Turmoil
Just over a century ago, the U.S and Argentina were rivals and Argentina was among the 10 richest economies on the planet. Fast forward and it is the only ‘1st world power’ to degrade to a developing country after a century of economic turmoil.
The two countries have some similarities, Europeans settled their eastern coastlines and settlers pushed westward over temperate grasslands to the steep mountain ranges. The gaucho and the cowboy - frontier ranchers - were elevated national symbols. The expansion had a key difference: the U.S. parceled land to individuals and families, Argentina handed it to a select few, rich landowners.
Long story short, a snowballing effect of borrowing, unskilled labor, poor monetary policies, an isolationist tariff (84%!!!) that stifled trade, and more borrowing decimated the Argentine economy. In the middle of the 20th century, the average Argentine income was twice that of Spain and three times that of Japan. By the 1980s, those ratios had entirely reversed.
Income per head dropped by nearly a quarter in three years. Five presidents came and went within two weeks. The country became a laughing stock.
How about Argentina’s Lost Resort Town?
If you’re into travel and eerie imagery of forgotten settlements, check out the The Ruins of Villa Epecuen - a town left flooded for decades by a surge from the neighboring lake and only inhabited by one lonely man. Watch BBC reel’s ‘The last inhabitant of Argentina’s flooded city’ if you need to see to believe.
Closing With the Vibes:
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I recommend Jaden’s entire album on Spotify for some lo-fi work/study music: Kid’s Menu
If I can get you to replace 15 minutes of mindless scrolling through your media/news/app rotation with some interesting, optimistic, educational content in a newsletter, I'll rest easy.
If I made that happen, consider sharing this newsletter with a friend:
If you’re not feeling it, please reach out and provide some feedback. I don’t know what I’m doing and I can only improve through iteration - stick with me.
Test comment!
In reference to a more "libertarian" approach to vaccines (or drugs for that matter).
1. Added liability: Without the FDA to thoroughly vet a given drug/vaccine there is of course a heightened risk of danger to the public...or is there? The FDA is largely influenced by big pharma's lobbying groups and therefore has a vested interest in creating single source suppliers for life saving meds/vaccines. If you decentralized this power big pharma would have far more competition. The giant companies wouldn't have pull in the federal government like they do now so they wouldn't be nearly as dominating as they are, smaller players would have more influence. As the free market does with proper competition, the people would demand safe, well vetted drugs/vaccines. The onus and liability falls on the pharmaceutical company though not the FDA at that point. It is therefore in there best interest not to kill people, if for no other reason than avoiding lawsuits and lost revenue. Lastly, as with any branch of the federal government, it's not like the FDA themselves always have your best interests in mind. As much as you may not trust big pharma (and probably rightfully so) the FDA isn't innocent either.